A Difficult Decision

 

With the trade deadline 24 hours away, many teams are stuck in between wanting to compete for a Wild Card spot or selling off assets for the future. The worst spot for an organization is to feel stuck in the middle. GMs do not want to waste an opportunity to gain assets but do not want to lose a fan base by selling when really their team is still in it. This is a difficult decision to make but I think it should be an easy one.

Let’s not forget that baseball is in the entertainment industry. Fans support these teams for six months while they pay ridiculous prices attending games and buying hot dogs and coca cola. 162 games is a lot for fans to follow but many fans are along for journey. When July 31^st comes around and a team is within striking distance of a Wild Card spot, ownerships of teams need to reward their fan bases for their support rather than ripping their heart out by selling the team to build for the future. Let’s look at 2 scenarios.

The San Francisco Giants:

The Giants were a team this season that appeared to be one of the automatic sellers come the deadline because on June 25^th, they were 34-44 and 6.5 games back in the Wild Card. Enter today, they are winners of 18 out of their last 23 games and are 2.5 games out of the Wild Card. The Giants are playing great baseball and they have won 7 straight 1 run games. There is still speculation about what the Giants want to do entering the deadline. Despite having pieces like Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith that could help teams during the home stretch and bring in prospects to rebuild, they should not. The Giants fanbase has bought into this team and are excited about this unexpected run. The Giants owe it to their fans to try to win. One last thing to consider. If the Giants were to get into the 1 game playoff, they could throw arguably the best Postseason pitcher of all-time in Bumgarner. I would like my chances to get into a 5-game series with Bumgarner on the mound. The Giants should absolutely try to compete for the playoffs. I am not saying to go out and buy but see what this team can do for the next 2 months.

The New York Mets:
No one on the planet knows what the Mets are doing since they went out and got Marcus Stroman. They have stated that they may want to deal Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler and possibly Edwin Diaz to build for 2020. I like the Stroman deal and by doing so, they currently have one of the best rotations in baseball. Over the past 14 days, the Mets rotation has a 2.62 ERA and now they add Stroman. Not many teams can match deGrom, Stroman, Syndergaard, Wheeler, and Matz. Since the break, The Mets have won 10 of 15 since the break and find themselves 6.5 out of the Wild Card entering today. With the Mets rotation, why not go for it? That rotation is good enough to shut down any lineup. The Mets made a “we’re going for it move” in the off-season when they acquired Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. Worst case scenario, they can always reevaluate things and sell in the off-season. The Mets have a talented roster and should see what they can do for the final 2 months.

Baseball is a funny game. On paper, the Dodgers should face the Astros or Yankees in the World Series but who knows if that will actually happen. You never know what happens in a 5-game series and you never know about injuries and who slumps. Baseball doesn’t need more organizations like the Orioles, Royals, and Marlins where they are tanking and building for the 2023 season. If teams are in the run, see what happens. They owe it to their fan bases and it’s good for the game.

An Unusual Trade Involving Greinke

 

With the trade deadline a little over 48 hours away, there is a ton of speculation about trades and how teams can improve their rosters for the stretch run. I have an interesting trade option that would involve the Arizona Diamondbacks and the New York Yankees. Hear me out.

There is no question that the New York Yankees are in desperate need to bolster their starting rotation if they want to reach the Fall Classic. This past week the rotation for the Yankees has been abused by the Twins and Red Sox. Brian Cashman will without a doubt make a move before the deadline. Options are limited for the Yankees as Marcus Stroman was dealt to the New York Mets and Madison Bumgarner does not appear to be going anywhere with the recent play of the San Francisco Giants. There is a lot of questions surrounding how effective Luis Severino will be when he returns later in the season from a shoulder injury, so the Yankees need to make a deal for a top of the rotation arm. It is pointless for the Yankees to waste prospects making a trade for a caliber pitcher like one that is already in their rotation. My suggestion, Zack Greinke.

Zack Greinke has been a top of the rotation starter for a long time and I believe he can handle pitching in the Bronx. He is having another stellar season as he is 10-4 with a 2.87 ERA in 22 starts. Greinke also leads the NL in WHIP (.943) and in today’s game where balls are flying out of the ballpark, keeping runners off the bases is of upmost importance. Greinke is a pitcher that I would have no problem handing the ball off to start Game 1 of a series.

I think a major obstacle involving Greinke in a deal is his contract. Greinke will make the rest of his contract this season, 35M in 2020, and 35M in 2021. Asking any team to take on that contract in full is crazy, even if a team is desperate during the deadline. The Yankees are sitting at 189M, so they are comfortably under the luxury tax threshold this season. Looking at next season, they already have 164M tied up. Adding Greinke’s full contract would put the Yankees just shy of 200M (199) and that would be before the Yankees do anything in the off-season. What I am about to propose is something you would typically see in the NBA. The Arizona Diamondbacks should trade Zack Greinke to the New York Yankees for Jacoby Ellsbury and a nice haul of prospects from the Yankees.

I know you are thinking two things. One, Jacoby Ellsbury still plays baseball. Two, why would the Arizona Diamondbacks want him. Jacoby Ellsbury is still in baseball and still being paid by the Yankees. Ellsbury will be in the final year of his deal next season where he will make 21.14 M and has a 5 million dollar buy out for the following season. If you add that up, that is 26 M for Ellsbury. If Arizona sends Greinke to New York, they will be sending 70+ M. That’s a ton of money to spend on an aging pitcher for just two seasons. If you offset Greinke and Ellsbury, the Diamondbacks would save 45+ M (depending on how much Greinke is still owed this season). Yes, Ellsbury is a brutal contract and probably will not be healthy to step foot on a field again. But saving that much money would be huge and by paying some of Greinke’s remaining contract, I think the Diamondbacks would be able to acquire better prospects from the Yankees. It would be crazy to expect the Yankees to dish out a few highly regarded prospects and take on the remaining money for Greinke. Ellsbury is a way to offset the difference.

If you are the Diamondbacks, this trade makes sense because they are one of those teams that are stuck in the middle. They aren’t really competing for a playoff spot and they aren’t rebuilding for the future. They are 53-53, stuck in the middle. By dealing Greinke, it frees up cap space to add to areas of need. The Diamondbacks have 2 pitching prospects in Jon Duplantier and Taylor Widener, both of whom are soon ready to pitch in the league. It would be beneficial for the D-Backs to add to their farm system and see if they can find a quality young arm.

You also must look at what the rest of the division is doing. The Dodgers are a machine and are not going anywhere. The Padres are an up and coming young team and their window is right around the corner. The Giants are playing well but their window is closing as they have an aging team. The Rockies are having a down season but did make the playoffs the past 2 seasons. The D-backs need to understand where they are amongst the other teams in the division and focus on building for the future. A complete teardown is not necessary, but they should not try to compete for a wild card spot this season despite being 3.5 games back. Deal Greinke and focus on 2020 and beyond.